How the country's "kitchen cabinet" style negotiations lead to foreign-policy blunders
Imagine this: Israel strikes Iranian nuclear facilities, destroying some
and damaging others. Iran fires missiles back at Israel and "activates"
Hezbollah
on the northern border. Hamas, deciding this is an opportune moment,
starts shooting its own rockets into the southern and coastal areas of
Israel.
This is an entirely plausible scenario. It's also one that Israel
expects. What's less clear is whether Israel has thought through the
rest of the
implications of a strike on Iran: the impact on the economy; the
length of time citizens will need to be mobilized for military service;
the reaction of
its friends, allies, and neutral states; and how it will coordinate a
multi-tiered response on all these fronts.
It's hard to have confidence in Israel's ability to plan for these
non-military consequences simply because Jerusalem tends to avoid such
planning. This is
because of the lack of a strong, independent non-military
decision-making body able to draw on the knowledge and expertise of all
agencies of the
government and coordinate a position that accounts for the various
consequences that flow from Israeli military action. This, in turn, is
due to the
predominance of political conditions and the historical development
of the country itself.
It's not just a problem for Israel. The country is positioned at the
center of a strategically-important region undergoing a number of
political and
social crises. When Israel engages in a specific security policy
without having adequately thought through the aftereffects of its
actions, particularly
given its reliance on force as a policy tool, there are ripple
effects throughout the region and beyond. The country's difficulty in
figuring out how to
respond to the many crises around it -- the Iranian nuclear program,
the Syrian civil war, growing Palestinian impatience with the
occupation, and an
increasingly-strong Hamas -- make this a more urgent issue.
The country's National Security Council
(or, more properly, the National
Security Staff), headed by a National Security Advisor (NSA), was
created as a way to mitigate these pathologies. First established in
1999, it was given
concrete form and legal standing with the 2008 National Security
Law. A body composed of representatives of different ministries and
agencies, the NSC is
supposed to provide an array of options -- as opposed to specific
recommendations -- regarding both the general security situations and
specific
developments as they crop up. It is, as Chuck Freilich has
suggested
, the best hope for making decision-making more structured, formal, and effective.
Unfortunately, longstanding patterns of decision-making, based on
Israel's history, threat environment, and politics, have proved
difficult to change.
Israeli security decision-making is informal, secret (though
sometimes punctured by leaks), and typically dependent on only a few
individuals, particularly
at the strategic level (tactical and operational decisions coming
out of the security establishment tend to be more formal and
systematic).
This process emerged out of the experience in the Yishuv (the Jewish
community in Mandatory Palestine). The raucous politics that marked the
voluntary
institutions of the Yishuv, in which most groups in Jewish society
were included, was simply carried over once the state was established.
But with so many
different parties clamoring to be heard in the political arena,
security decisions could hardly be debated at length.
Strict and formal hierarchies never took in the small, besieged
population of the Yishuv and then Israel. The need for most to serve the
state in some
capacity meant that political and military leaders were relatives
and friends of each other, sharing living and political space and
engendering
informality.
The threat environment, in a context of regular war, cross-border
incursions, and skirmishes with enemies, also militated against broad
public
consultations, including even in the full Cabinet. The public tended
to defer to the government to make quick decisions on security without
demanding
public debates or accountability. This high tolerance for secrecy
has facilitated leaders' perceptions that they are fighting for the
state's very
existence, therefore they can make decisions quietly and without
much input.
The result has been an explicit decision by Israel's prime ministers
to hold their own "kitchen cabinets" (the name comes from Golda Meir's
tendency to
hold small decision-making sessions with a handful of advisors in
her own kitchen). Major security decisions were discussed in these
forums, with the
composition varying according to individual prime minister and need.
David Ben-Gurion's decision to start Israel's nuclear program, for
example, was
discussed with Shimon Peres as Director-General of the Defense
Ministry and Ernst Bergmann as chair of Israel's Atomic Energy
Commission. Only once a
decision is made or close to being made is it brought to the entire
cabinet. This has been the tendency of all of Israel's prime ministers,
though in
recent years another tier in between -- a ministerial forum of seven
to nine ministers -- has been added.
The process served the purpose of constructing short-term responses
to immediate security threats and international affairs while
institutions and
decision-making procedures were still being worked out. But it could
not be successful forever. As the state became more institutionalized
and prosperous,
and as the public increasingly came to eschew the collectivist ethos
-- and thus came to mistrust government decisions more often -- a more
formal process
with more attention to the long term became necessary.
In recent years, cases of poor decision-making seem to abound. Two stand out: the2006 war in Lebanon and the 2010 attack on the Gaza flotilla.
In both cases, there was confusion among government ministers, unclear
strategic and to some extent even tactical objectives, and a lack of
discussion about possible consequences of military action and its
potential failure.
In the former, the Prime Minister (Ehud Olmert) and the Defense
Minister (Amir Peretz) charged into Lebanon after the kidnapping of
three soldiers on
patrol along the border; even the Foreign Ministry was not informed
about the first attack until nearly a day later.
Despite Hezbollah's increased wariness of antagonizing Israel after the war, Jerusalem was widely perceived to have fared poorly in the war: Hezbollah was not
defeated and quickly re-armed, while life in northern Israel was disrupted as
hundreds of thousands of civilians were forced into shelters for most of the conflict.
The lack of broader analysis was highlighted in the
Winograd Commission
, the official Israeli investigation into the war, and meant to be
addressed with the establishment of the National Security Council
afterward.
In 2010, an effort to prevent the flotilla from breaking the Israeli blockade on Gaza culminated in the deaths aboard the Mavi Marmara of eight
Turkish citizens and one Turkish-American. This, in turn, brought international condemnation of Israel, a sharp break in relations with
Turkey (which, to be fair, was already in decline
), a United Nations investigation, and efforts to bring
Israelis beforeTurkish and international courts.
The Turkel Commission, which inquired into the flotilla deaths, hinted at the same problems in
broader planning that existed in 2006, because the NSC was absent from the discussions over how to respond to the flotilla.
The establishment of the NSC, then, hasn't served to mitigate
Israel's decision-making pathologies. It continues to struggle to embed
itself in a process
that until now has been primarily informal, dominated by the
military, driven by personal relationships, and obsessed with short-term
rather than long-term
thinking. Most policymakers and analysts do believe the NSC is
needed to provide carefully-thought out planning. And things seem to be
getting better, but
only slowly, and only in response to events.
Because it is slow and iterative, damage is caused to Israel both
physically and in international support each time it fails to plan
ahead. As Oded Eran, a
former member of the NSC put it, the government is "learning the
hard way, through penalties" imposed on Israel for poor decision-making.
There are some things Israel could do to strengthen its NSC. First, in his positive assessment
of outgoing American National
Security Advisor Tom Donilon, David Rothkopf notes that a great deal
of his success was due to his role "of honest broker among the many
senior national
security voices clamoring for the president's ear." The specific
individual coordinating the Council's efforts matter, then.
In Israel, the choice of NSA has often been more political than
anything else, selected for their closeness to the prime minister. This
might seem like an
asset, since it gives the NSA a direct channel to the leader of
government. But it also means that the NSA either shares many of the
PM's own ideological
goals and political agenda (such as the current NSA, Yaakov
Amidror)--in which case the purpose and expertise of the NSA is being
undermined -- or it means
the Council's analysis are contingent upon good relations between
the NSA and the prime minister. When those relations break down -- as
happened when Uzi
Arad was NSA -- the Council is neglected.
But even when merit is the criterion, the pathologies inherent in
the system can derail the process. When David Ivri was asked to leave
his position as
Israel's first NSA to become ambassador to the United States, he
knew it was a political request. He understood, he told me, that he was a
threat to
Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai and Prime Minister Ehud Barak's
decision-making autonomy. He didn't mean it in personal terms, but
rather that his
position as an independent NSA was seen as undermining the Defense
Ministry and Mordechai, and the prime minister's office and Barak.
Still, a strong, impartial NSA known to the security community and
liked by the prime minister is one of the most important ways the
Israeli NSC can be
strengthened. Someone who can speak to the various agencies in the
government and genuinely coordinate information and analysis, and whose
policy papers
will be taken seriously not just by the Prime Minister but other
ministers in the various cabinet forums.
Second, right now the NSC is seen as an alternate power source in a
decision-making arena already filled with agencies and individuals
fighting to maintain
their autonomy and influence. This is of special concern when it
comes to the security establishment and, especially, the Defense
Ministry, both of which
have long played an outsized role
in civilian
policymaking. The war that Israel was born into, and the several
conflicts that erupted throughout the next decades, required military
input into
policymaking. That the military had to be so prepared also forced it
to develop early on a systematic planning structure, and it remains the
case today
that the Israel Defense Forces and the Defense Ministry have the
most efficient operational, tactical, and strategic planning agencies.
Their input has
been not just required, but necessary.
NSC members have noted that the Defense Ministry has been the least
resistant to the NSC's new role, mostly because the NSC hasn't been
successful. Some
tension is inevitable -- it's the nature of bureaucratic agencies to
fight for turf. The NSC will have to build on existing tolerance
without trying to
take over the Defense Ministry's role completely; it cannot hope to
win such a struggle. Some dilution of the military's authority will be
inevitable, but
it should be done with tact and by ensuring the military is a party
to the process the entire time.
Third, senior or ambitious civil servants and security officials
will have to overcome their reluctance to be posted to the NSC. Shlomo
Brom, a Brigadier
General with considerable experience in security policymaking, said
that before long, he was looking for a way out of the Council, mostly
because its work
was ignored. If good people don't work for it, and principals send
junior representatives to it, its chances of being ignored increase
considerably because
it won't have the weight of well-known and respected thinkers.
In the meantime, Israel and the region can only hope that the
consequences of short-term and narrow thinking are not overly grave.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/06/the-price-israel-pays-for-its-poor-national-security-decision-making/276706/
Tuesday 11 June 2013
The Price Israel Pays for Its Poor National-Security Decision Making
Posted @ 15:47
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