The question of who Israel’s prime minister will be is usually an
important one. But as far as Israel’s national security is concerned,
the question is becoming less and less important. The reason for this is
not a happy one.
In recent months, while we were busy
here with the issue of universal draft, Israel lost quite a bit of its
ability to chart its own strategic future. During the rainy winter of
the elections, while everyone was asking where the money is, Iran
reached the verge of the immunity zone. Within a short time the question
of whether Israel continues to be a major regional power will cease
being an Israeli question and become an American question. It will not
be the sovereign prime minister of sovereign Israel who decides whether
we remain sovereign over ourselves, but rather the president of the
United States.
In sum, Israel’s ability to live a
half-normal life in this abnormal place is based on Dimona’s monopoly.
About a decade ago it emerged that Iran was very tangibly threatening
that monopoly. From 2002 to 2008, Israel hoped that some unseen hand
would lift the Iranian threat over its future. The unseen hand was
indeed brave, creative and almost genius-like, but the task was too
great for it. And so from 2009 to 2012, Israel threatened to stop the
Iranian threat by itself. But in these very days, Israel’s
counter-threat is dissipating and losing its strength. As a result, for
the first time in its history, Israel will soon have to place its fate
in the hands of others. The Israelis will not decide whether to be or
not to be − President Barack Obama will decide.
The new
situation highlights what has happened here in recent years. Looking
back, it is clear that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense
Minister Ehud Barak were right when they said 2012 would be a fateful
year. Looking back, it is clear that Netanyahu and Barak were unable to
obtain the result they wanted out of that year. After they created a
great international drama, the international community turned its back
on them. After they created a great Israeli drama, most Israelis turned
their backs on them. Although their analysis of the situation was
correct, Netanyahu and Barak were unable to stop Iran during the last
period of time that Israel could still do so.
The new
situation also highlights what will happen in the coming years: In a few
months, Israel’s period of independence in the realm of security will
come to an end. The ball will then immediately move to the White House
court. Israel will cease to be relevant. Netanyahu will cease to be
relevant. Even the Israel Defense Forces will cease to be relevant. The
president of the United States will be the person who holds Israel’s
security in his hands. If he decides to pay the high price of stopping
Iran, Israel will flourish. If he decides to forgo the effort, Israel
will decline. Obama will for all intents and purposes head Israel’s 33rd
government.
Over the past four years Israel has done
its best to become the object of Obama’s loathing. It did not grant his
wish for a courageous move vis-a-vis the Palestinians; it acquiesced
only partially and temporarily to his request to freeze the settlements;
senior Israeli officials showed sympathy for his rivals and created the
impression that they wanted his downfall. And yet, people say in
Washington, Obama insists on being Israel’s friend. He identifies with
the basic Jewish story of slavery to freedom; he treats kindly the
enlightened Israeli story of Amos Oz, David Grossman and Haaretz. As he
gave Israel the security of Iron Dome, he would be glad to give it a
strategic iron dome.
And so he is coming here next
week: to redress the errors he made in his first term and to turn over a
new leaf in relations with a people who are deeply suspicious of him.
And indeed, this short, bustling visit will be different than any that
preceded it. This time it will be the visit of an American president who
holds the fate of the Jewish state in the palm of his hand.
http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/prime-minister-obama.premium-1.509230
Wednesday 13 March 2013
Prime Minister Obama
Posted @ 22:04
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